Impact of Atmospheric Variability on Soil Moisture-Precipitation Coupling

It is now well-established that the chaotic nature of the atmosphere severely limits the predictability of weather, while the slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface states can enhance the predictability of atmospheric variations through surfaceatmosphere interactions or by providing a boundary condition (e.g., Shukla 1993, 1998; Shukla et al. 2000; Graham et al. 1994; Koster et al. 2000; Dirmeyer et al. 2003; Quan et al. 2004). Among them, the influence of ocean is more important on a global scale because it covers twice as much surface area as land and is a much larger heat and energy reservoir. But the impact of ocean may not be dominant over land, especially the mid-latitude land (Koster and Suarez 1995). The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) (Koster et al., 2004, 2006) builds a framework to objectively estimate the potential contribution of land states to atmospheric predictability (called land-atmosphere coupling strength) in numerical weather and climate models. By averaging the estimated land-atmosphere coupling strength from 12 models participating in GLACE, an ensemble average coupling strength is obtained. However, the coupling strength varies widely among models. The discrepancy is certainly related to differences in the parameterization of processes and their complex interactions, from soil hydrology, vegetation physiology, to boundary layer, cloud and precipitation processes. It is difficult to determine what causes the relatively strong or weak coupling strengths seen in individual models. Some studies have identified the impact of soil moisture on evapotranspiration (ET) (denoted SM→ET) and the impact of ET on precipitation (denoted ET→P) as two key factors for land-atmosphere coupling (Guo et al. 2006 (hereafter GUO06); Dirmeyer et al. 2010). For soil moisture to have a strong impact on precipitation, both SM→ET and ET→P need to be strong. This usually happens in transitional zones between wet and dry climates (Dirmeyer 2006). In addition to the mean climate state, does the climate variability have some impact on land-atmosphere coupling? A theoretical study found that the strength of the external forcing can affect the coupling strength and the location of coupling hot spots (Wei et al. 2006). Even less is known about how the land-atmosphere coupling is related to the